2020 United States presidential election predictions

Overall predictions of the 2020 United States presidential election results

Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

  • Tossup: No advantage
  • Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • Lean: Slight advantage
  • Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
  • Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
State or district EV PVI[1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020[2]
Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020[3]
Sabato
Nov 2, 2020[4]
Politico
Nov 2, 2020[5]
Real
Clear
Politics
Oct 29, 2020[6]
Niskanen Center
Sep 15, 2020[7]
CNN
Nov 2, 2020[8]
The Economist
Nov 3, 2020
[9]
CBS News
Nov 1, 2020[10]
270
to
Win
Nov 3, 2020[11]
ABC News
Nov 2, 2020[12]
NPR
Oct 30, 2020[13]
NBC News
Oct 27, 2020[14]
DDHQ
Nov 3, 2020[15]
Five
Thirty
Eight[a]
Nov 2, 2020[16]
 
Alabama 9 R+14 +27.73% R +25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3 R+9 +14.73% R +10.06% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+5 +3.50% R +0.31% D
(flip)
Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6 R+15 +26.92% R +27.62% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
California 55 D+12 +30.11% D +29.16% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9 D+1 +4.91% D +13.50% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Connecticut 7 D+6 +13.64% D +20.07% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Delaware 3 D+6 +11.37% D +18.97% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
District of Columbia 3 D+41 +86.78% D +86.75% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29 R+2 +1.20% R
(flip)
+3.36% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16 R+5 +5.13% R +0.24% D
(flip)
Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4 D+18 +32.18% D +29.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4 R+19 +31.77% R +30.77% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20 D+7 +17.06% D +16.99% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Indiana 11 R+9 +19.17% R +16.06% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+3 +9.41% R
(flip)
+8.20% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 +20.60% R +14.65% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Kentucky 8 R+15 +29.84% R +25.94% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8 R+11 +19.64% R +18.61% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Maine 2 D+3 +2.96% D +9.07% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
ME-1 1 D+8 +14.81% D +23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
ME-2 1 R+2 +10.29% R
(flip)
+7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10 D+12 +26.42% D +33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 +27.20% D +33.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16 D+1 +0.23% R
(flip)
+2.78% D
(flip)
Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10 D+1 +1.52% D +7.11% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Mississippi 6 R+9 +17.83% R +16.55% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10 R+9 +18.64% R +15.39% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3 R+11 +20.42% R +16.37% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+14 +25.05% R +19.06% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-1 1 R+11 +20.72% R +14.92% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-2 1 R+4 +2.24% R +6.50% D
(flip)
Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
NE-3 1 R+27 +54.19% R +53.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6 D+1 +2.42% D +2.39% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 +0.37% D +7.35% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 14 D+7 +14.10% D +15.94% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New Mexico 5 D+3 +8.21% D +10.79% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New York 29 D+11 +22.49% D +23.11% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15 R+3 +3.66% R +1.35% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3 R+16 +35.73% R +33.36% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18 R+3 +8.13% R
(flip)
+8.03% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7 R+20 +37.08% R +33.09% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7 D+5 +10.98% D +16.08% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN +0.72% R
(flip)
+1.16% D
(flip)
Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4 D+10 +15.51% D +20.77% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
South Carolina 9 R+8 +14.27% R +11.68% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3 R+14 +29.79% R +26.16% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11 R+14 +26.01% R +23.21% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38 R+8 +8.99% R +5.58% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 +18.08% R +20.48% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Vermont 3 D+15 +26.41% D +35.41% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13 D+1 +5.32% D +10.11% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Washington 12 D+7 +15.71% D +19.20% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5 R+19 +42.07% R +38.93% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN +0.77% R
(flip)
+0.63% D
(flip)
Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3 R+25 +46.29% R +43.38% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Overall 538 EVEN D: 232
R: 306
D: 306
R: 232
D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123
D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63
D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0
D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96
D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197
D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97
D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96
D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40
D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96
D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96
D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92
D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134
D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134
D: 308
R: 163
Tossup: 67
D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35

Notes

  1. ^ Projected chances of winning indicated by Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

References

  1. ^ Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017). "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". Decision Desk HQ. Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  2. ^ "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  3. ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. April 3, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  4. ^ "2020 President". Sabato's Crystal Ball. July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 14, 2020.
  5. ^ Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019). "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  6. ^ "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  7. ^ Niskanen Center Electoral Map, 270toWin, September 15, 2020.
  8. ^ "CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end". CNN. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  9. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  13. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020). "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  14. ^ Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020). "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Model". Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.

Further reading

  • 2021 special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics on "Forecasting the 2020 US Elections."

External links

  • General Elections, 3 November 2020, Reports and findings from the OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission
  • v
  • t
  • e
Democratic Party
IPO · WFP
Candidates
Withdrew during primaries
Michael Bennet
Michael Bloomberg
campaign
endorsements
positions
Pete Buttigieg
campaign
endorsements
positions
Tulsi Gabbard
campaign
positions
Amy Klobuchar
campaign
endorsements
positions
Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
campaign
endorsements
positions
media coverage
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
campaign
endorsements
positions
Andrew Yang
campaign
endorsements
Withdrew before primaries
Cory Booker
campaign
endorsements
positions
Steve Bullock
Julian Castro
Bill de Blasio
John Delaney
campaign
positions
Kirsten Gillibrand
positions
Mike Gravel
campaign
Kamala Harris
campaign
endorsements
positions
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
campaign
Wayne Messam
Seth Moulton
Richard Ojeda
Beto O'Rourke
campaign
Tim Ryan
Joe Sestak
Eric Swalwell
Marianne Williamson
campaign
Republican Party
CPNYS · RTLP
Candidates
Incumbent nominee
Donald Trump
campaign
endorsements
political
non-political
positions
GOP opposition
GOP reactions to fraud claims
Incumbent VP nominee: Mike Pence
Withdrew during primaries
Rocky De La Fuente
Bob Ely
Jack Fellure
Zoltan Istvan
Joe Walsh
campaign
Bill Weld
campaign
Withdrew before primaries
Mark Sanford
campaign
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Nominee
Jo Jorgensen
campaign
endorsements
VP nominee: Spike Cohen
Eliminated in balloting
Jim Gray
Adam Kokesh
John McAfee
John Monds
Vermin Supreme
campaign
Withdrew before or during primaries
Max Abramson
Lincoln Chafee
Zoltan Istvan
Formed exploratory committee but did not run
Justin Amash
Green Party
LMN · SA · SPUSA
Candidates
Withdrew during primaries
Dario Hunter
Other candidates
Jesse Ventura
  • v
  • t
  • e
Alliance Party
AIP · Reform
Other candidates
Max Abramson
Phil Collins
American Solidarity Party
Other candidates
Joe Schriner
Birthday Party
Bread and Roses
Constitution Party
Party for Socialism & Liberation
LUP · PFP
Progressive Party
Prohibition Party
  • Nominee: Phil Collins
Socialist Action
Socialist Equality Party
Socialist Workers Party
Independent candidates
Disputes
Attempts to overturn
Lawsuits
Controversies
  • v
  • t
  • e
U.S.
President
U.S.
Senate
U.S.
House
(election
ratings)
Governors
Attorneys
general
Secretaries
of state
State
treasurers
State
legislatures
Mayors
Local
State-wide
Related
  • v
  • t
  • e
Elections by year
Elections by state
Primaries and caucuses
Nominating conventions
Electoral College
and popular vote
Related
  • House elections
  • Senate elections
  • Gubernatorial elections
  • v
  • t
  • e
Early career
Presidency
Appointments
Legislation
2021
2022
2023
2024
Policies
Timeline
Elections
U.S. Senate
Vice presidential
Presidential
Family
Writings
Speeches
Media
depictions
Related
  • v
  • t
  • e
Presidency
Life and
politics
Books
Speeches
Campaigns
Legal affairs
Investigations
Related
  • v
  • t
  • e
Locations
States and D.C.
Territories and
other areas
Ships
Responses
Government
response
Legislation
Private
response
Media
Impacts
Social
Economic
Strikes
Notable
people
Federal
State and
local
Scientists
virus icon COVID-19 portal